An in-depth conversation about the Drake Equation

Chris and Mark have an in-depth conversation about the Drake Equation. Links to our resources below.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drake_equation
https://www.seti.org/drake-equation-index
https://www.businessinsider.com/drake-equation-formula-alien-life-calculation-2018-7
Intro Music: “Blue Scorpion” Kevin MacLeod (incompetech.com) Licensed under Creative Commons: By Attribution 3.0 http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/
Dive Horn: https://freesound.org/s/104882
Trombone Wah-Wah-Wah-Waaaaah: https://freesound.org/s/175409
Outro Music: “Neolith” Kevin MacLeod (incompetech.com) Licensed under Creative Commons: By Attribution 3.0 http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/

Transcript:

(0:04) Broadcasting live from the Treehouse in Phoenix, Arizona. (0:08) It’s Knocked Conscious. (0:09) With Mark Poles and… (0:11) Chris Woodsey-Peralta.

(0:13) From the home offices in Gilbert, Arizona. (0:19) Hello. (0:21) How are you? (0:23) Very well, and you? (0:24) Yes, you are really cranked up, sir.

(0:26) Why am I so loud? (0:28) Even in my ears I was loud. (0:29) I was like, I went to turn down this volume and you turned down that volume. (0:33) Yes, good job.

(0:34) I was wondering what happened. (0:35) I was like, whoa. (0:37) Broadcasting live.

(0:38) That really peaked. (0:41) My interest. (0:42) Yes, my interest.

(0:43) Good afternoon. (0:44) Good evening, sir. (0:45) How are you? (0:46) How are you, sir? (0:46) Good.

(0:46) How are you doing? (0:47) I’m doing well. (0:48) Doing well. (0:49) Welcome to Knocked Conscious, everybody.

(0:51) Welcome. (0:51) Knocked Conscious, everybody. (0:52) Who’s leaving? (0:53) I forget his own who.

(0:55) Today we’re doing what? (0:56) The Drake Equation, my dude. (0:58) Drake Equation. (0:59) Before we begin.

(1:00) Yes. (1:01) I have a special presentation. (1:03) A special presentation.

(1:04) Are you ready? (1:05) I am ready for this, sir. (1:07) Can I get a… (1:17) He’s shuffling, ladies and gentlemen. (1:19) He’s shuffling.

(1:20) A box of shit? (1:21) It’s not a box of shit. (1:23) It’s a box of awesome. (1:24) I don’t know, I haven’t opened it yet.

(1:26) What? (1:27) What is this? (1:28) I don’t know. (1:28) What is this? (1:32) Oh! (1:33) The Gafaa Cigar. (1:35) Gafaa! (1:36) Individually numbered and really oddly opened.

(1:39) Do you mind checking that? (1:41) I may have broken it already. (1:43) Nice. (1:44) I didn’t do anything, sir.

(1:47) How’s it looking? (1:48) Oh. (1:48) They looking okay? (1:49) Sexy as hell, bro. (1:51) Bro, they look good.

(1:51) Is there anything else in there? (1:53) I don’t know. (1:53) You sure? (1:54) Check it out, bro. (1:55) Is there something? (1:55) There should be.

(1:56) You gotta autograph something or other. (1:58) Didn’t he autograph the box? (1:59) I thought he autographed the box. (2:01) But I guess he didn’t? (2:02) I thought he did.

(2:04) It’s all good. (2:05) I don’t care. (2:06) This is awesome.

(2:08) Well, we just had that episode. (2:12) Is that how close? (2:13) There it goes. (2:14) Now it’s close.

(2:14) Yeah, because it was popped up in the middle. (2:16) Oh, it was popped up on purpose? (2:17) No, because of the inside cedar. (2:20) Oh, okay.

(2:20) Got it. (2:21) Nice, man. (2:23) Beautiful.

(2:24) And here you go. (2:25) Where’s your… (2:27) Oh, that’s yours. (2:29) That’s your ball marker.

(2:29) I just wanted to show it to you. (2:30) Look what he’s doing. (2:32) Is he doing the guffaw? (2:33) Yeah.

(2:33) Nice. (2:34) Show the audience. (2:35) Show the peoples.

(2:36) The peoples. (2:37) I think… (2:37) Yeah, you’re on me for some reason. (2:39) No, you’re on me for some reason.

(2:41) Oh, you’re on you now. (2:42) There you are. (2:43) Guffaw! (2:44) That’s amazing.

(2:45) That is a beautiful thing, man. (2:47) It’s a big poker chip. (2:48) Awesome.

(2:49) Awesome! (2:49) Very cool. (2:51) All right, well, we gotta throw these in your humidor and stroke them. (2:54) Also.

(2:55) Yes. (2:56) Well, thank you. (2:57) Thanks, Propper.

(2:59) We did some good for Barrow Neurological. (3:02) Barrow Neurological? (3:03) Not Barrow. (3:04) Not Barrow.

(3:04) Bancroft. (3:05) Bancroft. (3:05) Yeah.

(3:07) I know he sent some proceeds to that. (3:09) Some proceeds. (3:10) So, for all the people not on video, we got a nice box of guffaw cigars from… (3:16) From Tam Cigars.

(3:18) Brian Propp. (3:18) We bought them. (3:19) Yeah.

(3:20) We bought them, of course, but… (3:21) Ooh, they’re crunchy. (3:22) We don’t want to open… (3:22) Oh, they’re crunchy? (3:23) Oh, yeah. (3:24) They’re hard as a rock.

(3:25) We’re gonna have to humidor them, sir. (3:27) Okay, yeah. (3:28) That’s not good.

(3:29) That’s probably not good. (3:30) We’re gonna have to… (3:30) Ooh! (3:31) No, they smell great, dude. (3:32) They do smell good.

(3:33) I did smell them already. (3:35) But… (3:39) Yummy. (3:44) Are your dog senses tingling? (3:46) Oh, it smells really good.

(3:47) See? (3:47) I’m actually really excited. (3:49) Maybe tonight. (3:51) Maybe I just have to have one tonight.

(3:52) So, that was a really long intro, but well worth it on video. (3:56) Hey, dude, I’ve had this on my counter for three days. (3:59) It’s beautiful.

(4:00) So I’ve been waiting to give these to you, sir. (4:03) Guffaw Cigars. (4:04) Once again, the affiliate link is in our show notes.

(4:08) guffawcigars.com (4:09) Yes, but it’s also in our show notes. (4:11) We’ve got an affiliate. (4:11) In the show notes.

(4:12) So you click on the link, so the proper people get the proper credit. (4:16) You know what I’m saying? (4:17) No pun intended with the proper comment? (4:21) Proper, right. (4:23) Yes.

(4:25) So… (4:25) Thank you, sir. (4:26) That is beautiful. (4:27) I am excited.

(4:29) Are you going to Hannibal from A. Smith? (4:31) Are you going to Hannibal Smith at the rest of the podcast? (4:34) No, because if I do that, I’m going to want to light it. (4:36) And I’ll be like… (4:37) Did you take it off the wrapper and throw away the wrapper? (4:40) Yeah. (4:41) You did that? (4:42) You can’t.

(4:42) It doesn’t matter. (4:43) Either way is fine. (4:44) I hope they’re pretty crunchy.

(4:46) Well, either way, you could put them in the humidor with the wrapper or not. (4:49) They smell amazing. (4:50) They do.

(4:51) I’m very excited. (4:52) I concur, sir. (4:52) You should totally Hannibal Smith it.

(4:55) That’s not no negative. (4:56) So, Drake. (4:57) Equation.

(4:58) Frank Drake. (4:59) No. (5:00) Is it Frank? (5:02) It is.

(5:02) It’s not Sir Francis. (5:03) I was like, yeah, I always thought it was Sir Francis Drake. (5:06) There is a Sir Francis Drake.

(5:07) I didn’t want to go in that tangent, but I almost beer googled him. (5:10) Okay. (5:11) Sir Francis Drake.

(5:11) But it’s Frank Drake. (5:12) Well, first of all, before we talk… (5:14) Why did you want to talk about… (5:15) Why was this on the list? (5:16) Yeah. (5:17) So, this… (5:18) We are… (5:19) The thing about you and I, we’re just curious people.

(5:22) And you and I talk about aliens and intelligent life and otherworldly, (5:27) extraterrestrial stuff a lot. (5:29) Because we’re curious if, in fact, that is the case. (5:34) And we also try to combat it.

(5:36) It’s just a good thought experiment. (5:38) Like, you and I trigger our synapses by going, hey, do you think there’s (5:42) enough intelligent life out there to have craft to get here? (5:46) Yes. (5:47) And say hi to us, for example.

(5:49) So, the interesting thing about Drake is this is where it all started. (5:54) This gentleman, Frank Drake, I think he, at the first SETI, (6:00) the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence. (6:02) You know SETI, the organization? (6:04) I do.

(6:04) They have, like, satellites all over. (6:06) They rent time and they look for… (6:08) All that stuff. (6:09) Radio signals and all that stuff, right? (6:12) At the first one, he produced this equation.

(6:15) Now, the equation isn’t really an equation. (6:18) It doesn’t come up to an exact number. (6:20) But it’s a really interesting thought experiment about the possibility (6:24) or how likelihood or the likelihood of intelligent life.

(6:31) Yes. (6:33) So, when I share this with you, what did you think when you read up (6:37) a little bit about it? (6:38) I thought it confirms my previous thoughts that we’re not alone in the universe. (6:49) There’s obviously… (6:50) And I told Tyson this at the bottom of the Grand Canyon 10 years ago.

(6:58) Mathematically speaking alone, we’re not alone. (7:01) Just a sheer number. (7:02) Human beings are not the only intelligent being in the universe.

(7:05) Intelligent. (7:06) Because of numbers. (7:09) And I’m not a doctor of any kind, unless you count witch doctor.

(7:13) And this dude just confirmed my thought that I had at the bottom of the Grand Canyon (7:16) and I wasn’t drunk or high. (7:19) So… (7:19) Or both. (7:21) Or both.

(7:21) Both of them. (7:24) Very excellent points. (7:28) And if you did put numbers on everything, it will break down each of the pieces (7:31) of the equation, right? (7:33) No, I don’t want to do that.

(7:33) Because there’s a couple that are very concerning for me (7:37) for the intelligent life part. (7:39) Is there life elsewhere? (7:42) I don’t think that we can… (7:44) I don’t think that’s really arguable. (7:45) I think life exists somewhere else.

(7:48) Some kind of life. (7:49) Yeah. (7:50) Even just single cell organism.

(7:52) Something lives somewhere else. (7:55) That’s my opinion. (7:56) It’s pretty strong.

(7:57) I can’t imagine it being refuted that strongly. (8:01) As for intelligent life though, that’s where it gets tricky, right? (8:04) So, let’s go down this equation. (8:06) Do we want to talk about the dude first of all? (8:08) Yeah, tell us about Frank.

(8:10) Dr. Frank Drake. (8:13) He’s 90 years old, born in 1930. (8:16) American astronomer and astrophysicist.

(8:19) That is a smart dude. (8:23) He went to Cornell University. (8:25) And in 1960, he began the observational attempts (8:31) at detecting extraterrestrial communications.

(8:35) And that’s where he developed the Drake equation. (8:38) Right. (8:38) And that’s what we’re talking about.

(8:39) Part of this, why this whole thing came to be, (8:42) was if there was a civilization outside of Earth, right? (8:47) Outside of humans. (8:48) How would we know? (8:51) And it always came back to, well, we’d have to pick up (8:54) some kind of signal that’s not natural, right? (8:57) And that would be like a radio signal (8:58) or some kind of program or something. (9:02) Yes.

(9:03) Or is it… (9:04) You said a radio signal, but that’s not necessarily… (9:07) It could be any kind of signal. (9:09) It doesn’t have to be a radio signal. (9:10) When I say radio, it could be any frequency.

(9:12) Okay, yes. (9:13) Now I’m… (9:14) I just use radio only because that’s our lay term, right? (9:17) It doesn’t have to be like broadcasting live. (9:20) Look at the games on that Syrian.

(9:22) Oh, that plebeian really got some nice hooters. (9:25) Yeah, we went from games to hooters. (9:29) So, yeah, anything else about Frank? (9:31) He supervised the creation of the Voyager golden record.

(9:37) Wow. (9:37) Oh, that’s so cool. (9:39) Are you familiar with that? (9:40) And that’s Vijja from Stupid Star Trek.

(9:43) Vijja. (9:43) Number one. (9:44) I’m a blind… (9:45) I’m a bald model.

(9:48) Vijja. (9:48) It’s Zinaid O’Connor. (9:50) Vijja.

(9:51) Did Vijja rip up a picture of the Pope? (9:54) Probably. (9:55) Okay, so back on you. (9:57) Back on me.

(9:59) And back on you. (10:00) And back to you. (10:02) So that’s all I have on Dr. Frank Drake.

(10:04) So what is the golden record? (10:07) Tell us about the golden record, because I’m sure you and I both know. (10:10) I’ve got a golden ticket. (10:12) So Vijja, Voyager, and it’s Voyager 1, right? (10:16) Correct.

(10:17) Voyager golden record. (10:19) Didn’t they put that… (10:20) The Voyager golden record are two phonograph records (10:24) that were included aboard the Voyager spacecraft launched in 1977. (10:29) The records contain sounds and images selected to portray (10:33) the diversity of life and culture on Earth (10:38) and are intended for any intelligent extraterrestrial life form (10:42) who may find them.

(10:46) All right. (10:46) That is all. (10:47) So it’s got, like, greetings from Earth and sounds and shit.

(10:51) Greetings from Earth, sounds and shit. (10:54) It’s got some disco. (10:55) Are you familiar with the 11 pulsars, like the map, (10:59) the plaque that’s on the Voyager? (11:01) I’m not sure it’s on Voyager or Voyager 2. (11:03) I’m not familiar with that.

(11:05) So basically what Carl Sagan, they used pulsars, (11:08) I think 11 pulsars to show where we’re located in the universe or whatever. (11:14) It’s kind of interesting, just because there are clocks of the universe. (11:18) So, Frank Drake.

(11:19) Yes. (11:20) SETI, we’re going to listen for all these cool frequencies. (11:22) So they point the satellite dishes, the radio telescopes up to the sky, (11:27) and they listen, right, basically all night? (11:29) All night long.

(11:33) Yes. (11:34) And then Charlie Sheen gets contact and then gets chased by Ron Silver, (11:39) who’s also the bad guy in Time Cop. (11:40) I don’t remember that one.

(11:42) The Arrival. (11:42) Oh, that’s a great one. (11:43) But there’s the other Arrival.

(11:45) There’s Arrival 2. (11:46) There’s Arrival and Arrival 2. (11:47) Well, Arrival, Arrival, because Arrival— (11:49) Oh, yes, there’s also Arrival. (11:51) It’s the red-headed chick, and they do the weird languages, (11:56) the communication of the blah, blah, blah, (11:58) and they’ve got the big spongy fingers on the glass. (12:00) With Bourne 2.0, Hawkeye.

(12:02) Bourne Supremacy 0.7, correct. (12:04) Is it Hawkeye? (12:05) Hawkeye Supremacy. (12:06) Jeremy Rimjobber? (12:07) What? (12:08) Renner? (12:09) Oh, I didn’t.

(12:10) I forgot his last name. (12:12) It sounded close. (12:13) It was kind of close.

(12:16) So Drake is a thought experiment, isn’t it, basically, (12:20) more than is anything else? (12:22) I would agree that that is correct, yes, sir. (12:26) And then that last switch to the right there, on the right. (12:28) Don’t tell me what to do.

(12:29) Oh, I was just asking if you minded. (12:31) You could say, yeah, mind. (12:32) I mind, bitch.

(12:35) So this is where—oh! (12:37) I put her down. (12:38) So this is where we go with Drake. (12:41) We are trying to figure out the number of technologically advanced civilizations.

(12:47) Now, initially, it was just the Milky Way galaxy, (12:49) because they figured travel would be challenging between galaxies. (12:54) Yeah. (12:55) Because how far—Andromeda, for example, is our closest one, (12:58) and they’re really far away.

(12:58) But even within Milky Way galaxy, it’s a lot. (13:01) But you can use this number for the universe, too. (13:03) You just have to extrapolate that out, correct? (13:05) Exactly.

(13:05) You just extrapolate it out, right? (13:07) Because there are billions of galaxies inside the universe. (13:11) That’s correct. (13:12) So here’s an interesting one where they talk about the first part of it, right? (13:17) It’s a whole string, and we’ll put the equation up on the show notes.

(13:20) Okay, so let’s back up a second. (13:22) Okay. (13:24) Frank Drake came up with an equation that allows us to make an estimate (13:29) by multiplying seven quantities related to the prevalence of life.

(13:35) That’s the gist of the equation. (13:38) That’s correct. (13:39) So somebody’s like, hey, if you were to try to use— (13:42) how would you determine the possibility of life on somewhere else, (13:47) intelligent life elsewhere? (13:48) Would you say it’s a guesstimate? (13:50) Absolutely, yes.

(13:51) Because it’s really more of a thought of how these are the steps you have to go through (13:57) to figure out how many there are. (13:58) Right. (14:01) Bless you.

(14:05) Gesundheit. (14:05) I was holding that one for a while. (14:07) Okay, so do you have a follow-up question to that? (14:10) I do not.

(14:11) I just wanted to state the purpose of the— (14:13) I mean, the summarization of the equation. (14:17) Right. (14:17) So the equation is to determine the number of technologically advanced civilizations (14:22) in—well, here it’s the Milky Way, (14:24) but you can extrapolate to your point out to the universe, right? (14:27) We’ll do it for the Milky Way because that’s what it initially was intended for.

(14:30) Yeah, I agree. (14:31) We should just—yeah, let’s stick with that. (14:33) So, the first part of the equation.

(14:35) Yes. (14:35) Do you see that? (14:36) I do. (14:36) Would you like to share the first part? (14:38) The first part is R. (14:41) And what is that? (14:42) R for Roberto.

(14:44) R equals the number of suitable stars that form our galaxy per year. (14:52) Yes. (14:52) I don’t understand the per year part.

(14:54) Well, the R is the rate of formation. (14:55) So basically, according to that, in some of the equations I saw, (15:02) that’s generally like one in the Milky Way galaxy per year. (15:06) One new star.

(15:07) A new star is generated, okay? (15:08) Okay. (15:09) However, once again, how many millions have we found, (15:12) or tens of thousands of universes have we found? (15:15) Universes or galaxies? (15:16) Think about one per galaxy, right? (15:18) Oh, yeah. (15:19) And there’s billions of—let’s say there’s a billion galaxies, (15:21) but we’re not going to—that’s maybe— (15:23) I’m just saying— (15:24) That’s a secondary point.

(15:25) Right, it’s a secondary point. (15:26) So if it’s one here, it’s one times the number of galaxies, right? (15:30) So are we going to put one in that field? (15:31) Yeah, that’s where we saw one, I think, is what I saw some of these numbers to be. (15:38) I hope—Mark.

(15:40) Checkmark. (15:40) He’s like, I tried to figure out these numbers. (15:43) Are you like a doctor of astrophysicism? (15:47) Yes, I cannot find the number.

(15:49) Do you have an equation with Spillin? (15:51) Yeah. (15:52) Okay, you have it filled in somewhere? (15:53) Yeah. (15:53) Okay, cool.

(15:54) On the trusty iPad. (15:55) Okay, so after the rate, what’s the next piece? (15:59) So what’s your thought about that? (16:00) Like, that makes total sense, right? (16:01) Well, I’d never—sure. (16:04) But I didn’t know—I thought it was just the number of suitable stars, (16:07) not the number of suitable stars that form in our galaxy per year.

(16:11) I didn’t read that second part thoroughly enough. (16:14) So I’m like, I don’t understand why he would do that. (16:17) But like you said, it’s the rate of growth.

(16:19) Right. (16:19) So, okay. (16:21) I didn’t know that—I never really thought about the fact that there’s more stars being born, (16:27) but there’s also stars dying.

(16:29) There are stars dying, yeah. (16:30) So I never thought about that. (16:32) But I’m like, okay, I get you.

(16:34) Yeah, it does seem weird because it’s a rate of formation. (16:38) It’s not just number of. (16:39) Well, that just—which also tells me that the number of stars in the galaxy is growing.

(16:45) Yes. (16:46) So they’re being born faster than they’re dying is what that tells me. (16:49) And I never thought about that either.

(16:51) It could be. (16:52) I mean, there could be a point where there is a shrink, right? (16:54) Well, yeah. (16:55) Where we don’t know, right? (16:56) He’s just saying whatever that rate number is.

(16:58) Oh, it could be minus one. (17:00) Right, it could be technically—it could technically be a negative number. (17:03) Or a zero.

(17:04) Right, or nothing, right? (17:05) So it could be that, but the assumptions are that about one star per— (17:11) Net, one star. (17:12) Yeah, per galaxy is formed. (17:14) So, which is interesting.

(17:16) So the second portion of that, what of—what part—what’s the second part of that? (17:21) Or what’s the next part of that equation? (17:23) The next part is Fp, as in Francis Papa. (17:27) The fraction of these stars that have planets. (17:34) Right, so— (17:35) So a lot of stars don’t have planets.

(17:37) A number of them don’t. (17:38) However, there—I think I saw—did you see an equation that was written out completely, you said? (17:43) I saw one that was like— (17:45) This one? (17:45) Two to five? (17:47) Yes. (17:48) What’s—what are—didn’t they give you guidelines of numbers, though? (17:51) Oh, you mean underneath Fp? (17:53) Should I click on the more button? (17:54) Yeah, sure, why not? (17:56) Let’s give it a try.

(17:57) More. (18:01) Fp, the fraction of these stars that have planets. (18:03) Note, probability, at least half of all sun-like stars have planets.

(18:12) Most stars are too small to gravitationally support a planetary system, (18:19) while some stars have too short of a lifespan. (18:24) Probably at least half of all sun-like stars. (18:27) So do you just want to say 0.49? (18:31) I saw between 0.2 and 0.5. (18:34) Okay.

(18:34) So let’s split the difference to 0.35. (18:37) Roger that. (18:37) Bro, that’s exactly what I was thinking, my friend. (18:41) 0.35. (18:42) Right, and for the first one, was it one? (18:45) I don’t know, I didn’t click on more, bro.

(18:47) Well, maybe you should click more on that one as well. (18:48) There’s so many more buttons, dude. (18:49) I can’t help it, man.

(18:51) That’s what happens when you beer Google. (18:53) Oh my God, what’s wrong with this button? (18:56) It’s not working. (18:57) Oh no.

(18:59) Well, after that, so we have the rate, the average rate of star formation per year. (19:03) Sorry, it didn’t work, I’m dumb. (19:05) I apologize.

(19:07) R. (19:07) The moops. (19:08) I got the moopies. (19:10) R, the number of suitable stars that form in our galaxy per year.

(19:15) Note, astronomers estimate that number is about one. (19:17) Okay. (19:18) So, smart guy, check mark, way to go.

(19:21) Yes, I heard this was number one. (19:24) I like it. (19:26) So, numero tres, I believe, is the third portion of this equation.

(19:31) So, to summarize, there’s seven fields that are multiplied together to get the answer. (19:38) Yes. (19:38) So, we are going through each field.

(19:40) The first is the number of stars. (19:43) The second is the rate per year, R. (19:45) The second is FP, which is the fraction of star of those stars that have planets. (19:51) Correct.

(19:51) So, they guess between one-fifth and one-half. (19:54) So, we’re going to split that difference and we’re going to go from three to five. (19:57) Thirty-five percent.

(19:57) Yep, thirty-five percent. (19:59) We, of, is a good number to say. (20:02) Thirty-five percent of stars that are formed have a planet.

(20:06) Yes, like ours. (20:07) Revolving around them. (20:08) Like our solar system.

(20:09) We’re not there yet, not like ours yet, but just like a planet. (20:12) Well, yeah, the stars that have planets. (20:14) Right.

(20:14) Like our solar system has planets. (20:16) Exactly. (20:16) That’s my point.

(20:17) Got it. (20:18) Yes. (20:18) Okay.

(20:18) Yes, sir. (20:20) Moving forward. (20:21) Moving along.

(20:22) Yes. (20:22) To the third bullet of the equation is NE. (20:27) The number of Earth-like planets, a.k.a. planets that have liquid water, within each (20:33) planetary system.

(20:38) So, that would be the Goldilocks zone, right? (20:40) For the solar system, this number is at least one. (20:44) The Earth, and perhaps more, if Europa or other moons turn out to have oceans. (20:50) So, it’s at least one, is what you’re saying.

(20:52) It’s at least one. (20:53) And I think one’s a good conservative number. (20:54) Do you want to stay with one, sir? (20:56) Because I, it would be my opinion that there did appear to have, be something on Mars, and (21:02) it looks like Mars would have been in the Goldilocks zone had it had an atmosphere, (21:05) correct? (21:07) Yes, but they’re saying that Mars might have traces of water, correct? (21:12) Right.

(21:12) But it’s ice. (21:13) So, yes, I would agree with you. (21:14) Yes.

(21:15) So, traces of water could be just ice. (21:17) Yes. (21:18) Any water form.

(21:19) It has to be liquid water, though. (21:20) Well, if you can melt ice, right? (21:22) I know, but if it’s not in the Goldilocks zone, it’ll never melt to become, to make (21:26) light. (21:26) You have to go there and thought.

(21:28) Okay, now I understand. (21:29) Right. (21:29) So, the Goldilocks zone is the distance from a star that it would be, right? (21:34) Now, we’re a white sun, and it’s going to go supernova at some point and then become (21:37) like a red dwarf.

(21:38) There are some red dwarfs or some other stars that have, that the planets are much closer (21:45) to. (21:46) Yes. (21:46) Because.

(21:47) It can support life. (21:48) Because the temperature of the star is a lot cooler. (21:51) Which would, that just means how old the star is, right? (21:54) In general terms, yes.

(21:55) It would be the age of the star or how it was constructed or whatnot and things like (21:59) that. (21:59) Hydrogen, bro. (22:00) A lot of factors.

(22:01) Hydrogen and helium. (22:01) All that shit. (22:02) But it’s definitely hydrogen.

(22:04) Yes. (22:05) Okay. (22:05) So, the average number of planets that can potentially support life.

(22:10) So, Earth-like liquid water, right? (22:12) Yes. (22:12) Liquid water. (22:13) They’re saying about one per.

(22:15) Yes, sir. (22:15) That’s correct. (22:16) So, right now, we’ve got one star average per year.

(22:20) Yes. (22:22) .35 of them have. (22:25) A planet.

(22:26) A planet around them. (22:29) One of. (22:30) Of those.

(22:31) Or, I’m sorry. (22:32) Of those planets. (22:33) Of those ones that have planets, one would be in the Goldilocks zone.

(22:37) Correct. (22:38) Okay. (22:38) Cool.

(22:39) Liquid water. (22:39) Yes. (22:40) Next.

(22:40) Okay. (22:41) Number. (22:41) Hey, oh my gosh.

(22:42) I nexted. (22:43) Stop it. (22:43) How dare I? (22:45) Number four is FL.

(22:47) The fraction of Earth-like planets where life develops. (22:53) So, it’s obviously different than just the capability of having life. (22:56) It actually has to happen.

(22:57) Correct. (22:58) Okay. (22:59) I’m curious what that number is.

(23:01) What’s that number in your little equation box? (23:03) If you think all Earth-like planets produce life, your estimate would be one. (23:09) If you think only one in ten such planets produce life, your estimate would be .1. (23:18) Would you like to be conservative and go one in a hundred? (23:23) Or is that too conservative? (23:25) If you think all Earth-like planets produce life, your estimate would be one. (23:30) Right.

(23:30) If you think. (23:31) One in ten would be .1. (23:33) Right. (23:33) Right.

(23:34) And then one in a hundred would be .001. (23:36) Yeah. (23:36) Yeah. (23:36) Yeah.

(23:36) I’m just trying to think of your comment about being conservative. (23:40) I’m trying to think what. (23:42) If we’re trying to get the most accurate number using this equation, what would be the best (23:47) thing to put there? (23:48) Yeah.

(23:48) So, is going conservative the right? (23:51) What if we did 5%? (23:53) One in 20. (23:54) Okay. (23:54) That seems fair.

(23:55) I agree. (23:56) How about that? (23:57) .05? (23:57) .05. (23:58) How about that? (23:59) I think that’s fair. (24:00) So, we’re going to just make the assumption that of planets that have liquid water, one (24:08) in 20 develop life of some sort.

(24:10) Yes. (24:11) Okay. (24:11) Yes.

(24:12) I like it. (24:13) And the reason, it will matter that we extrapolate this out to the universe because that number (24:18) becomes huge once we do that. (24:20) It becomes what? (24:21) Huge.

(24:22) Huge. (24:23) It’s going to be the best Drake equation ever. (24:26) Is Jess on the board yet? (24:30) I don’t think so.

(24:31) It’s the most award winning podcast ever. (24:33) The most award winning ever. (24:35) I don’t know.

(24:36) Okay. (24:37) Never mind. (24:37) I would draw the question.

(24:38) You really put me on the spot, man. (24:39) I don’t even like spots. (24:40) We put each other on spots all the time.

(24:43) Yes. (24:44) It’s ridiculous. (24:44) We need spot, remember.

(24:46) Resolve, bro. (24:47) Resolve. (24:47) Hey, resolve.

(24:48) And then we need more dollars. (24:49) Can you sponsor us, resolve? (24:50) Because I do use you when the dog pees on the carpet. (24:53) We make New Year’s resolvations.

(24:57) Yes. (24:57) All the time, bro. (24:59) All the time, man.

(25:01) All right. (25:01) So we’ve got rate of stars, fraction of those with planets, average number of planets that (25:09) have water on them, the fraction of those that can actually develop life. (25:15) Yes.

(25:16) All right. (25:16) So that’s, what are we? (25:17) Four deep? (25:18) Four deep, sir. (25:19) Four out of seven.

(25:20) Yes. (25:20) All right. (25:21) We have now gone over the hump.

(25:23) Yes. (25:24) That last one was our hump equation. (25:28) The rate of humping.

(25:29) No, that’s not it at all. (25:30) Our hump formula. (25:32) The next, the fifth.

(25:34) One, two, three, four, five, fifth. (25:35) The fifth item on the list is FI. (25:38) The fraction of life sites where intelligent life develops.

(25:45) So this is where it gets interesting. (25:47) Yeah. (25:48) What could we possibly deem as intelligent life? (25:52) We define, Mr. Drake, Dr. Drake defines intelligence as having a symbolic language like mathematics, (26:01) English, Japanese.

(26:02) Since English, I’m sorry, since language is required for communication. (26:08) If you think every planet with life produces intelligent beings sooner or later, your estimate (26:15) would be one. (26:16) If you think only one percent, your estimate would be 0.01. (26:21) Okay.

(26:22) So the percent of planets that develop life. (26:26) So it’s all about the ability to communicate, though. (26:29) Is that what they’re saying? (26:30) That’s what they’re saying.

(26:31) That’s correct. (26:31) It doesn’t state. (26:32) In any way.

(26:33) It doesn’t state writing or speaking. (26:34) It says communicating. (26:36) Okay.

(26:37) So what’s your definition of. (26:39) Language, right. (26:39) So let’s break that down because this is where it gets important.

(26:43) What is your definition of intelligent life? (26:47) Well, that’s not that that’s not the point. (26:49) The point is the life has to communicate. (26:53) That’s what the equation states.

(26:55) That’s what my opinion about what’s intelligent life doesn’t matter. (26:57) Then let’s break it down to what is your opinion of the communication? (27:01) Can it only be spoken? (27:03) No, of course not. (27:04) Why not? (27:05) Because there’s other forms of communication besides speaking.

(27:08) Right. (27:09) Like sign language. (27:10) But I’m saying.

(27:12) If it’s spoken, does that is that is that count as a communication? (27:18) If it’s only spoken, not written. (27:20) See, because here’s here’s where the argument comes. (27:23) Dolphins, in my opinion, are very intelligent.

(27:25) They do have a communication. (27:26) They can’t write anything. (27:28) They don’t have the influence.

(27:28) No, I live in water. (27:30) I agree. (27:30) Yeah.

(27:30) They also can’t harness fire. (27:32) Well, that’s because they live in water. (27:33) We had a conversation.

(27:33) Right. (27:34) We’ve had this conversation. (27:35) So to me, though, in my opinion, that’s.

(27:38) I would consider them an intelligent life. (27:41) Well, yeah, I agree. (27:43) Because if if the two dolphins, if one goes and the other one hears that and (27:47) understands it, then that’s communicate.

(27:48) That’s intelligent communication. (27:50) Right. (27:50) And it’s not written.

(27:51) Correct. (27:51) No, it has nothing to do with. (27:52) Right.

(27:52) That’s what I’m saying. (27:53) So if it’s just spoken, purely spoken communication, that does that. (27:58) Do you accept that as as intelligent? (28:00) Yes.

(28:01) That’s what I said. (28:01) I thought you said no. (28:03) What about telepathy? (28:05) That’s communication.

(28:07) Yes. (28:08) If it’s real, then absolutely. (28:10) With two, if two.

(28:13) Beings from another planet. (28:14) Yes. (28:14) If they communicate through their brainwaves, that’s I just use the word (28:19) communicate.

(28:20) Can you read the part, the more part again about the communication? (28:22) I cannot. (28:23) That way, just to clarify, because it is. (28:25) We define intelligence as having a symbolic language like math or English.

(28:31) Since language is required for communication. (28:36) See, symbolic is where I started thinking it’s written somehow. (28:40) Well, I. (28:41) Because like dolphins don’t know what.

(28:43) But wouldn’t. (28:43) Don’t know what EE or AA looks like. (28:45) Well, no shit, but it’s they’re talking about intelligent, symbolic language.

(28:50) Right. (28:50) So. (28:51) I wonder.

(28:51) That can be written. (28:53) Right. (28:53) It can be written.

(28:54) Can be verbal. (28:55) It can be. (28:55) Okay.

(28:56) Sign language. (28:57) Symbolic can be audio. (28:58) Just not.

(28:59) Doesn’t have to be visual. (29:00) Because when I hear symbolic, I assume visual. (29:04) Because I’m using, because I put the word symbol in it.

(29:06) That’s all I’m asking. (29:07) It says symbolic language like math or English. (29:09) Right.

(29:11) Those are letters. (29:12) Those have letters and. (29:14) Yes.

(29:14) Characters. (29:14) So that would be written. (29:16) Do you see, do you see where I’m.

(29:17) Yeah. (29:17) I know I’m being like prickly about it, but I was. (29:19) Well, stop it.

(29:20) Well, I’m, I’m trying to soften my edges, bro. (29:24) No, I was just curious. (29:25) So I think that speaking alone is adequate for, for intelligent communication.

(29:30) Because in my opinion, dolphins are intelligent and they communicate. (29:35) I agree. (29:35) And they don’t, they can’t write.

(29:37) So. (29:38) What about like a cave person, you know, a million years ago on earth, just that just (29:43) had guttural sounds. (29:45) Do you consider that communication? (29:48) I mean, if, if, if a cave person made a sound, does that mean that that’s communication? (29:54) Because somebody else, another humanoid on earth wouldn’t necessarily understand that (30:02) just that’s verbal.

(30:04) And I don’t even know if I’m making sense. (30:06) You’re making a lot of sense. (30:07) Stop it.

(30:08) If no one else understands it, then it’s just grunting and whatever. (30:14) Like you can beat your chest and know that you’re angry by going. (30:17) Well, is that symbolic communication then? (30:19) It’s not, it’s more just aggression.

(30:21) It’s more just aggressive tendencies. (30:22) I don’t think it’s communicating a thought because you don’t know what the actual thought (30:28) of that, of the person is when they’re doing that. (30:31) Right.

(30:31) You don’t know if it’s protection for food or for the reasoning, for example, for the (30:37) outlash. (30:37) Right. (30:38) Yes.

(30:39) So I would say that at that point that was not intelligent yet, but if there’s, there’s (30:44) a social hierarchy and things like that, and you’re generally at that point, I, I think, (30:49) I mean, do you think apes can communicate? (30:51) That’s what I was just going to say, man, is that there’s social hierarchy with apes. (30:54) Right. (30:55) Whether it’s chimpanzees or those, the big silverback gorillas.

(30:58) Right. (30:58) So. (30:59) And there’s understanding between those.

(31:00) They, they, they’re intelligent. (31:02) Yeah. (31:02) And I mean, for Christ’s sake, they can do sign language and they can.

(31:06) I’ve seen, I’ve seen a primate use a spear and fish. (31:11) Right. (31:11) No joke.

(31:12) Like. (31:12) Yeah. (31:12) It’s one of the coolest pictures I’ve ever seen.

(31:14) It’s literally a primate hanging out of a tree and like spearing like a water to get a fish. (31:20) Crazy. (31:21) Do they catch the fish? (31:22) I don’t, I didn’t see a fish on the end.

(31:25) Everybody wants to know. (31:26) We do want to know. (31:27) The whole world wants to know.

(31:30) Yeah. (31:31) So they communicate. (31:32) Or is it an understanding? (31:34) Like, I don’t know what level, because bees technically communicate, but it’s not a symbolic (31:40) language, right? (31:41) They go, they spin in a certain direction.

(31:43) They leave pheromones. (31:44) They do this, they do that. (31:46) Technically that’s communicating.

(31:47) Well, that’s also. (31:48) But it’s not symbolic. (31:50) It’s purely instinct too.

(31:52) Right, but we don’t, right, but we don’t, it’s still communication, right? (31:57) So it’s just one of those weird gray areas. (32:00) What would you put your number, what would you put as a number between 1% and 100%? (32:06) I’d say 0.5. (32:07) Yeah. (32:08) Again.

(32:08) That’s exactly right. (32:09) I’m sorry, 0.05. (32:11) At 5%? (32:12) 5%. (32:12) Oh, okay.

(32:13) I was going to go 50% actually on that. (32:15) Only because if life, well, we’re not at the next one yet. (32:21) Well, think about, okay, hang on.

(32:22) So we’re talking about, we did 5% of Earth-like planets life develops. (32:30) So what percent of those life forms become intelligent? (32:35) Right. (32:35) So you could have amoebas and you could have microbes and.

(32:40) Yeah, dinosaurs. (32:41) I mean, before the asteroid hit, dinosaurs were the top. (32:47) Right, and we were like little moles, right? (32:49) So technically we weren’t, we didn’t dominate until the dinosaurs were gone.

(32:53) Right. (32:53) But that means there was life. (32:55) So that means that Earth would not have been considered on that list yet.

(33:00) Right. (33:00) They wouldn’t have been intelligent. (33:01) I don’t think that you would have considered intelligent life.

(33:03) But, so if you, let’s say you have 100 planets, (33:07) how many of those planets are just going to have single-celled organisms (33:11) and, you know, non-intelligent life? (33:13) I like, I like the 5% of 5%. (33:15) Let’s do it. (33:15) Let’s do 5%.

(33:16) I’m with you. (33:17) You sold me. (33:18) One out of 20.

(33:18) You just dropped 45%? (33:20) Yeah, because I love you, man. (33:21) I was ready to go halfway, bro. (33:22) You want to go 33? (33:23) No, I’m good.

(33:24) 31.6. (33:25) I feel like I want to be conservative with the number first of all. (33:29) Then why were you at 50? (33:31) Because I felt like that was rational, but now you make a lot of sense. (33:33) Like 1 in 20 have life.

(33:36) 1 in 20 of those get intelligent life. (33:38) That sounds good. (33:39) Sounds good to me.

(33:40) Because I just imagine there’s 100 planets and they all have liquid water. (33:49) Then there has to be life. (33:51) Then there has to be intelligent life.

(33:52) And I can imagine 100 planets with, you know, algae and spores (33:57) and fucking fungus and shit, right? (34:00) Yeah. (34:00) But that’s, I can imagine 99 planets like that. (34:05) But 1 is the one that has intelligent life.

(34:08) Right. (34:08) So do you think it’s just 1%? (34:09) No, we’ll just go with 5. (34:10) Okay. (34:11) I like 5%.

(34:12) See, look at that. (34:13) We’re already agreeing on stuff. (34:15) Well, I didn’t think we wouldn’t be.

(34:19) Well, I thought you hate me or something. (34:21) You don’t even like me. (34:22) Next.

(34:22) I don’t even want to be here. (34:24) I have to go now. (34:25) That as well.

(34:27) Is this, what are we on? (34:28) Six? (34:28) We’re on, one, two, three, four, five. (34:31) Yes. (34:31) Number six.

(34:32) Now we’re on six. (34:34) Go ahead, sir. (34:35) F, C. (34:36) The fraction of intelligent life sites.

(34:39) Did we already do that one? (34:40) Nope. (34:41) Where communication develops. (34:43) Did I click on the wrong one? (34:45) I think so.

(34:45) Son of a poop. (34:46) No, it is F of C, though. (34:47) I’ve got the fraction of civilization to develop a technology (34:50) that releases detectable signs of existence into space.

(34:55) Yes. (34:56) So that would be like, like we talked about, (34:58) our radio waves, television waves, (34:59) any frequency, flares. (35:03) Flares.

(35:05) Rifles, six shooters, you know, all those kinds of things. (35:10) So this is what this thing says. (35:12) There could be intelligent beings who haven’t yet invented radio telescopes.

(35:17) We humans belonged to this category until the 21st century. (35:21) Or there could be others who have the means to communicate but don’t. (35:26) Perhaps they’re not interested or fear they might endanger themselves (35:29) by advertising where they are.

(35:31) So this is the communication outside of their own planet. (35:35) Correct. (35:36) Okay.

(35:36) Well, it’s, well, it’s, yes, it’s making sure that we don’t send that out. (35:41) Now, technically, we have radio signals that we created that escape the atmosphere. (35:48) Yeah.

(35:48) So they’re even, they’re unintentional radio signals that are out there. (35:52) Even if they had something internal within their own society, (35:55) it still could have escaped. (35:57) Yeah, without them knowing it.

(35:58) Or without them thinking about it. (36:00) That’s what happened to us. (36:02) Right, where we don’t outwardly, but we actually outwardly send signals out to you.

(36:06) Right, but we did, like, starting in the 60s. (36:10) But before then, radio waves could leave the atmosphere, right? (36:15) Yeah, we didn’t think about it. (36:15) Without us even thinking about it.

(36:17) Right. (36:17) We didn’t know that that was happening. (36:19) I don’t know if we thought about it.

(36:21) Right. (36:21) Like, I’ll be honest, it wasn’t even, like, a consequence of what, you know what I mean? (36:26) What’s a consequence of radio waves? (36:27) Like, they’d eventually go away. (36:29) I don’t think anybody thought of that as a communication.

(36:32) That it just goes on forever. (36:33) Right, because, once again, no one used this until, you know, until 60, correct? (36:38) So, well, I mean, people I’m sure were talking about it. (36:42) Well, there were radio waves before then.

(36:43) Right. (36:44) But we just didn’t, we didn’t think about the fact that it could leave the atmosphere (36:47) and continue on through space forever. (36:50) Right.

(36:50) Or that we, it would get picked up by, like, aliens would use that as a sign that we’re, (36:54) or track us down. (36:56) We wouldn’t, I wouldn’t even thought that we would, that would even be on our radar. (36:58) I would agree.

(36:59) At that point. (37:00) Just a thought. (37:01) Yes.

(37:02) Yeah, so we’ve had it. (37:03) Now, what’s interesting is we’ve about, we’ve had, what, radio for about 70 years now? (37:08) No. (37:08) No.

(37:09) Way more than that. (37:09) 90 years. (37:10) Yeah.

(37:11) Say 19, 20? (37:13) 100 years? (37:13) Yeah, because in 39 was the War of the Worlds broadcast. (37:17) So 20? (37:17) 38. (37:17) So yeah, let’s just say in the, say 1930, the depressions.

(37:22) Okay. (37:22) The depression. (37:23) The depressions.

(37:24) So that’s about 90 years ago. (37:26) Sure. (37:28) Yeah.

(37:28) So the thing is, that’s only, we’re only 90 light years. (37:32) The furthest signal that we would have ever created if it had escaped from the atmosphere. (37:37) Yeah, that’s huge.

(37:39) And it’s still strong. (37:40) Yeah. (37:40) It’s still out there.

(37:41) It’s only 90 light years away. (37:45) That’s not that far when you think about it, right? (37:49) In the realm of the galaxy, that’s not, that’s a baby step. (37:52) Dropping the bucket, my friend.

(37:54) All of those expressions. (37:55) Yeah, exactly. (37:56) So what are your thoughts about that? (37:58) Because everybody talks about pointing up to listen, right? (38:02) But even we, who have the capability to listen, only have extended out 90 light years from our home base.

(38:10) Well, we’re still a newer civilization. (38:14) I mean, the human on Earth is new because we, well, from a technological perspective, you know? (38:23) Yeah. (38:24) We’re incredibly immature.

(38:28) Yes, we’re definitely young, but we’ve advanced so far also, right? (38:32) We’re both ends of that. (38:34) We’re in this amazing explosion of understanding and technology and knowledge and whatnot. (38:39) Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.

(38:39) But we are still neophytes at it. (38:41) And I just looked at the radio thing, it’s about 100 years. (38:44) Oh, I was off by 10.

(38:45) So 1920, ooh. (38:46) Whoa. (38:46) So say 100 years.

(38:48) Yeah. (38:48) This makes an easy number. (38:49) So the furthest we’ve reached out is 100 light years.

(38:52) And I think the closest star system’s like 4 million light years. (38:55) Holy crap. (38:56) Or something, is that right? (38:57) I don’t know.

(38:57) It’s not 4, I don’t think it’s 4.6. (38:59) Oh my God, are you going to look it up? (39:00) Yes. (39:01) Do you have a disorder like where if you don’t look something up, you’d freak out? (39:07) Yes. (39:07) Would your brain leak out of your ear? (39:09) What would happen? (39:11) Have you listened to the beginning of the beer googles or the non-consciouses where (39:15) I have to say everything three times before we can continue? (39:18) Just listen.

(39:19) It’s annoying as fuck. (39:20) What do you say three times? (39:22) Hi, hi, hi, or how’s it going? (39:25) How’s it going? (39:26) How’s it going? (39:27) How are you? (39:28) How are you? (39:28) I’ve done it a few times now and I’ve listened to it and gone, oh. (39:32) It doesn’t sound as bad except for when you’re listening for it.

(39:35) And now I just told everybody to listen for it. (39:36) Dude, why? (39:37) Oh, man. (39:38) I just broke my own glass, bro.

(39:39) Why would you say that? (39:41) I just broke my own glass. (39:42) Damn it. (39:43) Allegedly, according to the beer googles, the closest Starbucks is what came up.

(39:54) Even the googles is against us. (39:56) Dear Marvin the Martian, may I have a white Frappuccino? (39:58) I’m going to blow up the earth. (40:00) Would you like a caramel macchiato? (40:03) I’d like it cold.

(40:06) Proxima Centauri is 4.2465 light years. (40:09) So it would have gone through that one. (40:11) I think Sirius is like eight light years away, something like that, 9.8. (40:14) So we would have gone past a couple stars.

(40:17) Okay. (40:17) But only 100 light years from where we are, our current location. (40:21) Yeah.

(40:22) If a signal still has a strength to be picked up and is coherent and hasn’t been broken (40:26) up by solar winds. (40:29) Space debris. (40:30) Yeah.

(40:30) Yeah. (40:31) Yeah. (40:31) And the radiation in the Van Allen belt.

(40:35) Right. (40:36) The Orion belt. (40:37) You know when father loosens his belt, it’s over, my friend.

(40:40) When that Van Allen belt comes out from the loops, it’s over, my friend. (40:45) Terrible. (40:45) Yeah.

(40:46) So we’ve got, what are your thoughts about all of that? (40:51) Excellent, right? (40:53) I’m trying to think of the number. (40:55) Okay. (40:56) The fraction of intelligent life sites where communication develops.

(40:59) What is under this more thing? (41:01) It doesn’t say. (41:02) It doesn’t give you an approximate? (41:04) No, nothing. (41:05) Okay.

(41:06) So you want to do another 5%? (41:08) Because it’d be 5%. (41:09) Okay. (41:09) So this is intelligent life that has the ability to communicate outside of its own planet.

(41:15) Correct. (41:16) So it has the capability of sending out some kind of signals. (41:19) Now, it could be designed for just their planet, but it still is out there because it’s out (41:24) in the ether, right? (41:25) It’s out in the atmosphere.

(41:28) Nice. (41:30) I don’t know, man. (41:31) 1 in 20? (41:31) Let’s do another 1 in 20.

(41:33) So 1 in 20 planets that can support life do. (41:37) 1 in 20 of those are intelligent, and 1 in 20 of the intelligent ones communicate outwardly. (41:43) Why not do that? (41:44) Fine.

(41:44) That’s a good number, right? (41:46) 1, 2, or 5? (41:46) I don’t know the right number to put in there. (41:49) Okay. (41:49) So I’m just going to go with your gut instinct.

(41:53) I’m liking our 1 out of 20. (41:55) Okay. (41:57) Finally.

(41:57) Last. (41:59) It’s certainly not least because I want to talk about this bad boy. (42:02) Oh, dear.

(42:04) L, the lifetime in years of a communicative civilization. (42:10) So the lifetime in years of a communicative civilization. (42:14) Humans have been communicative for less than 100 years.

(42:17) Correct. (42:18) Do you think we or the average intelligent species remaining willing and able to communicate (42:23) with other star systems for only a century, a thousand years, a million? (42:29) Your guess is as good as the experts. (42:32) So this is where it gets interesting.

(42:34) Yes. (42:36) We, as humans, the whole point about this is we’ve been alive for 100 years. (42:41) Well, communicative externally.

(42:44) Externally. (42:45) So let’s use 1920. (42:47) Well, I’m just saying communicatively alive.

(42:49) We’ve been alive to the universe. (42:50) Okay. (42:51) Yes.

(42:51) Agreed. (42:52) No, that’s a great description. (42:54) I totally misspoke.

(42:55) I apologize. (42:55) I totally approve. (42:56) But we’ve been alive to the universe, exposed to them, showing our twig and berries for (43:01) about 100 years.

(43:03) If that, right? (43:04) Let’s say 100 years. (43:05) Sure. (43:06) In that time, we’ve had World War, coming out of World War I. (43:12) So not so, that was horrible, but we’re out of that.

(43:15) World War II, the Red Scare, the Cold War, all of that. (43:21) We never pushed the button and destroyed ourselves. (43:24) We haven’t had a life-ending event, right? (43:28) End of life event.

(43:28) We haven’t had an asteroid like the dinosaurs have. (43:32) Right. (43:32) How long, on average, do you think civilizations last? (43:36) I mean, how close were we to blowing ourselves out of the fricking sky? (43:39) I don’t know how close we were.

(43:41) What are your thoughts? (43:41) Well, everyone says the Russian, the Cuban Missile Crisis was the closest we’ve ever (43:46) been, right? (43:48) But was it us? (43:50) Was it them? (43:50) Were we all mutually assured? (43:52) I mean, were we all going to be wiped off the face of the Earth? (43:55) It was 1960. (43:56) Were the nuclear weapons that powerful at that point? (43:58) I’m asking. (43:58) I don’t know.

(43:59) I don’t know either. (43:59) Please don’t look it up. (44:00) I’m not.

(44:01) I don’t care. (44:01) That’s what we’re having a conversation about. (44:03) I love having conversations.

(44:04) But this is really important, is what is the average life expectancy of a community of a (44:08) civilization? (44:09) Because humans have shown their greedy side, in addition to their intelligent side, right? (44:14) Right. (44:14) So when there’s a fight over resources, the likelihood of us destroying ourselves is there. (44:20) There’s a possibility.

(44:21) Not likelihood. (44:22) I’m not going to say high likelihood. (44:23) But there is a possibility.

(44:24) Of course. (44:25) Of us destroying ourselves. (44:26) There’s also a possibility I could regrow my hair.

(44:28) Famine, ice age, global warming, climate change. (44:34) A myriad, myriad things can change that. (44:38) What do you think are some of the most dangerous ones for intelligent species? (44:46) And which ones can we prevent? (44:48) Or which ones are like, how would you rank those types of events as in their levels of (44:54) danger? (44:56) I would say an external force like an asteroid or gravitational issues or earthquake, you (45:07) know, planet quakes, not earthquakes.

(45:11) Those sort of things I would think are the most likely. (45:16) I think that humans always put our own crap on everything. (45:25) So when we talk about non-Earth intelligent beings that communicate, how do we know they’re (45:31) greedy? (45:31) How do we know that they are self-destructive? (45:34) How do we, we don’t.

(45:35) We have no idea. (45:36) There could be a thousand species on a thousand different planets that are nothing like us. (45:42) They have no ego.

(45:43) They have no, they have, it’s, they have no self-preservation bullshit. (45:48) So we all, humans always put our, our own blah on everything. (45:53) And that could be a horrible mistake.

(45:56) We don’t know that other creatures are like us or not like us. (46:01) We don’t know either way. (46:02) Right? (46:02) I’m just saying we have a habit of assuming every other species is like us.

(46:11) So I don’t see, okay, they, it does Alpha Centauri, planet number seven have atom splitting (46:18) weapons. (46:21) Why, why would they even think to split the atom? (46:24) They might not. (46:26) They may develop technology completely different than humans because they have a different type (46:31) of planet, a different type of evolution.

(46:34) Yeah, absolutely. (46:35) No, you make a really good point. (46:37) That’s why I was asking.

(46:37) I’m really curious about that. (46:39) To counter that. (46:40) No.

(46:41) Do you, what are your thoughts on how evolution works? (46:44) Because evolution happened here. (46:48) We evolved, right? (46:50) Evolution is kind of this, it doesn’t really have a consciousness to it, but it works, right? (46:57) It works to be the most efficient, this, that, and the other. (47:00) Over time, would evolution assume limited resources like it did in this world and then (47:07) include the greed, the peacocking, the flashing, the alpha mailing, the power? (47:14) Yeah, I got you.

(47:15) I’m just curious if evolution works that way or if it could work, or the consciousness (47:21) could override it earlier, right? (47:23) Like we are evolved to a point where we can constantly look at ourselves and create, affect (47:29) change in ourselves. (47:29) I mean, we’re amazing beings. (47:32) We can make behavioral and personality change in ourselves by consciously deciding to not (47:38) act on instinct, for example.

(47:40) Yeah, I totally agree with that. (47:42) And I think that’s an amazing thing. (47:43) That is such a great, cool thing.

(47:46) But, every once in a while, that evolution rears its ugly head. (47:49) I’m curious if evolution works, is a universal type thing, or if it just happened this way (47:57) here. (48:00) I would guess that it would make sense it would happen everywhere.

(48:08) Because, if you think about a human, we no longer need our tonsils. (48:13) We no longer need our spleen. (48:15) We no longer need our gallbladder.

(48:17) So, there was a reason why those things were there before. (48:22) I don’t know why, but we don’t need those pieces anymore. (48:25) So, it would make sense that on a different planet, a different humanoid type race, they (48:32) have, oh, they have a flibbity flibbity, and the flibbity flibbity over a million years (48:37) is no longer necessary, so it just falls off.

(48:41) Or, maybe they needed tails for a while, and now they don’t need tails, or something to (48:47) that effect. (48:47) Yeah, something changed. (48:48) So, it makes sense that what you don’t need is no longer there and useful, and what you (48:55) do need may develop.

(48:56) To me, that would make sense universally. (48:58) Right. (48:58) So, I’m wondering if, as the species become the more dominant of the group, right, primates (49:07) became the dominant species.

(49:09) Is there an alpha alien? (49:10) I understand what you’re saying. (49:11) Right. (49:11) So, I’m just wondering, I’m saying, to that end, are they greedy like us? (49:17) Or, is that like a mandatory? (49:19) Or, are they like us where they’re on a path of consciousness? (49:23) Because, the whole point about this is, once our base needs are taken care of, food, shelter, (49:28) clothing, for the most part, that’s when we can really focus on being better people, right? (49:33) But, if those pieces are always in jeopardy, those resources are always in jeopardy, there’s (49:37) always that fight, that’s where evolution really kicks in and kind of writes the story (49:42) for us.

(49:42) Understood. (49:43) So, just a thought on that. (49:45) So, what do you think is a good number? (49:49) Before I answer that to your point, I think it’s possible, and I think it’s probable that (49:55) many civilizations around the galaxy don’t develop that alpha mentality.

(50:03) I think that it’s possible that they go, well, shit, if we all treat each other better and (50:08) more equally, we can get more shit done. (50:11) Right. (50:12) We can become a better civilization.

(50:13) We can reach farther places. (50:15) We can be better all around. (50:17) Which is true with humans, it’s just we don’t do it because we’re selfish assholes.

(50:22) Yeah, to your point, we talk about projecting our feelings on others. (50:27) Right. (50:28) You are absolutely right.

(50:29) It could happen that way. (50:30) My curiosity is, it feels to me like evolution does what it does for survival and for efficiency, (50:38) and I feel like every place, I mean, to be on this spinning rock that’s revolving around (50:45) a ball of hydrogen that’s X thousand degrees, how many, 93 million miles from it, with this (50:51) other thing spinning 236,000 miles around us in the moon, you know, like, that we’re here? (50:59) It’s crazy. (51:00) It’s astonishing.

(51:01) Totes. (51:02) So, it would just, to me, it would almost make sense, like, evolution is like a prick (51:07) in general, just because, not intentionally, but it’s because it’s about survival. (51:12) So, you don’t think evolution applies to non, you don’t think it applies to extraterrestrials? (51:19) No, I feel like it does.

(51:22) Okay. (51:22) And with limited resources, evolution will make the dominant species greedy. (51:28) Not make it, but it’s like a byproduct.

(51:32) Because the greed is the collection of resources, right? (51:35) Isn’t that really what greed is? (51:37) Is collecting resources, right? (51:38) So, is this just a conversation between the nihilist and me? (51:43) Well, no, I’m not complaining about it. (51:45) I’m asking. (51:45) I’m not saying you’re complaining, I’m saying, is that what this conversation’s turning into? (51:49) Yeah, well, that’s part of where Drake is very important, is how long do you think humanity (51:55) can last, for example? (51:56) I mean, can is one thing.

(51:57) Three, four weeks. (51:58) Right? (51:58) But how close were we to, like? (52:03) We haven’t had, we haven’t had an ELE, right? (52:05) But if we were the dominant species when the asteroid hit, when the dinosaurs were (52:10) extinct, we might be the extinct ones, right? (52:12) Absolutely correct. (52:13) So, it’s very interesting.

(52:14) Because what life did survive that asteroid hitting in the Yucatan Peninsula? (52:19) Right. (52:20) I don’t know. (52:21) It was .1% of that or some ridiculous number, right? (52:24) And how many ice ages have come and gone and life survived, right? (52:30) Yeah, absolutely.

(52:31) Through it. (52:32) And that’s what evolution does, right? (52:33) It’s a survival instinct. (52:35) And by the way, excellent job with the buttons.

(52:38) I know. (52:38) I haven’t heard. (52:40) I haven’t heard a single.

(52:42) I’m pressing the buttons. (52:44) I haven’t heard a single one of those. (52:45) On the video cameras.

(52:46) Oh, now I’m knocking, so the dog’s gonna bark somewhere. (52:49) So, to go to your question. (52:52) Yes.

(52:53) The lifetime in years of a communicative civilization, does that mean it’s the entire, it’s the lifespan (53:00) or how old it is presently? (53:02) No, the lifespan of it. (53:04) So, how long do you, on the average, do you think intelligent civilization can last? (53:10) How many years? (53:11) Or does last, I guess is the correct term. (53:13) Because, you know, like I said, it could be an outside of their possibility, right? (53:23) Or it could be internal destruction.

(53:26) So, the question is how long will a civilization communicate outside of their planet? (53:34) How long does a civilization that’s able to communicate. (53:40) Survive. (53:41) Right, because once again, we are now a thousand years old from the first radio signal.

(53:47) Well, now we’ve. (53:48) I know, I’m saying, I’m using an example. (53:51) Say we’re a thousand years down the road.

(53:53) Okay. (53:53) Now, our radio signals are a thousand light years away, so we’ve reached out ten times (53:57) further, right, than we had prior. (53:59) Yeah, in every direction.

(54:00) In every direction, omnidirectionally. (54:02) Wow. (54:04) Yeah, that’s right.

(54:05) Even, like, studying the dictionary, bro? (54:07) That’s right, ladies. (54:10) 25 cent word right there. (54:12) Shit.

(54:13) Dropping a 25 cent word, ladies. (54:16) But, right, does that make sense? (54:18) Yeah, yeah. (54:18) How long does the average civilization live? (54:22) So, think about, like, we talk about the nihilistic earth.

(54:26) We blow ourselves up, or we use all the resources and we can’t recycle anymore. (54:30) The water dries up. (54:32) An asteroid.

(54:34) Like, all those things play into effect. (54:35) What do you think, I think a conservative number would be a thousand years before something (54:42) shitty could happen. (54:44) What do you think? (54:45) 10,000 or a thousand? (54:48) Because, like, we had dark ages.

(54:50) Now, we weren’t able to communicate outwardly yet. (54:52) I understand. (54:53) So, I’m wondering if we ever went into another dark age as we reset that clock, right? (54:57) Because then that life doesn’t exist anymore.

(54:59) If we’re no longer communicating, yeah. (55:01) Internet shuts down. (55:02) I’m sorry, what? (55:03) Yeah.

(55:04) There’s, like, a global war, right? (55:06) Internet shuts down, blah, blah, blah. (55:07) And no one knows how to turn that shit back on because all the people that could. (55:10) Well, you do just ask Al Gore, bro.

(55:13) Oh, that’s right. (55:14) Duh. (55:15) Because he developed the internet.

(55:17) It’s the interwebs. (55:19) Isn’t that? (55:20) Man, bear peg. (55:22) That’s perfect.

(55:22) Man, bear peg. (55:23) Man, bear peg. (55:24) So, yeah.

(55:25) So, how long do you think? (55:26) So, a thousand. (55:26) What do you think is a good number? (55:28) I don’t know. (55:29) Like, it’s, once again, this is why it’s a thought experiment.

(55:32) Because that kind of reminds me of our UFO guy that said that there’s civilizations 500 (55:40) million to a billion years old. (55:43) So, you’re saying that if that guy’s right, Dr. whatever the fuck, I forgot his name already, (55:48) from last week. (55:49) Greer? (55:50) Dr. Greer.

(55:51) Stephen Greer? (55:51) Dr. Stephen Greer. (55:52) Stephan Esteban. (55:54) So, if that’s, you’re saying the average is a thousand.

(55:58) That means if there’s a hundred civilizations, a lot of them are dying really fast. (56:03) That’s the question, though. (56:05) I’m curious what that, what that question is.

(56:07) Because we, we’re in a very weird point in our life right now that we’re aware of. (56:16) Right? (56:16) We’re kind of eating ourselves up internally. (56:18) I am.

(56:19) To an extent. (56:19) Well, people. (56:20) I’m delicious.

(56:21) The U.S. is kind of having a little bit of digestion with itself. (56:25) It’s got a little indigestion. (56:26) Well, that’s, but see, that’s happened with every empire that’s ever been on the planet.

(56:31) Right. (56:31) My question is, when is one of those become an end of civilization event? (56:37) Or, like I said, an asteroid or some other thing. (56:39) Yeah.

(56:40) There are other things that can destroy life, right? (56:42) Of course. (56:43) Like environmental issues, right? (56:45) Yeah. (56:45) To that extent.

(56:46) A planet quake. (56:47) Right. (56:47) I mean, an ice age, we, we understand the most recent ice age for humanity was 10,000 (56:54) years ago.

(56:55) Yeah, that’s nothing. (56:55) That’s a blip. (56:56) Right.

(56:56) Now, the question is, though, would we have survived that with the technology we have (57:00) now? (57:01) Probably? (57:02) Well, humans survived it before. (57:05) Yes, but I don’t. (57:06) Humans were around 11,000 years ago.

(57:07) Right. (57:08) And I’m assuming that some didn’t live, they lived in places where. (57:12) The equator, bro.

(57:13) It probably wasn’t the worst for that. (57:15) Yeah, because you have to, you have to migrate to survive. (57:19) Right.

(57:19) So they were highly adaptable. (57:20) You can’t live in Kansas. (57:21) Right.

(57:21) Totally highly adaptable. (57:23) I’m just asking when. (57:24) An ice age wouldn’t end the life, but I’m saying like an asteroid obviously would.

(57:27) You’re correct. (57:27) Or some other, some other. (57:29) Yes.

(57:29) So what are your thoughts about. (57:31) A thousand years. (57:32) Do you want to do 10,000? (57:35) Yeah, because I don’t want to believe the worst in, you know, I, I agree with you that being (57:42) conservative is the, is the best course of action on this stupid fictional equation.

(57:47) But I, I don’t think we should shoot ourselves in the foot either. (57:51) That’s true. (57:52) So, you know, we can’t, again, we can’t put our human stuff on other, other creatures.

(57:57) Because advanced civilizations would also have solutions to a lot of problems. (58:00) I would hope they would. (58:02) Right.

(58:03) That’s a good point. (58:03) You can’t think about the way humans are today. (58:05) You think about the way that humans are in 500 or a thousand years.

(58:09) Hopefully things were more advanced and more civilized and less shitty. (58:15) You know. (58:17) It’s interesting how you and I, well not you and I. (58:20) You.

(58:21) I speak for you. (58:21) Yeah. (58:22) It’s interesting how we see that.

(58:24) Like the intelligence of all humanity has increased exponentially year over year. (58:32) The world’s more literate. (58:34) More.

(58:35) Yes. (58:35) Has more goods, more wealth, whatever. (58:38) And yet it feels like there’s still a bunch of stupid fucks out there.

(58:43) Yeah. (58:44) And again, you can’t, we don’t, we have no idea. (58:48) Right.

(58:48) If what you just said translate to other planets. (58:51) That’s absolutely correct. (58:52) Which may, very well may, right? (58:54) Well, it could translate in the fact of greed, like greed in its own way.

(58:58) Survival instincts. (58:58) But not stupidity. (58:59) It could have, could be highly evolved.

(59:01) Or just this, the consciousness comes, develops earlier in, in some evolved civilizations. (59:07) And they, they see to your point, the work of cooperation being more of more important. (59:13) That outweighs everything.

(59:13) Right. (59:13) Outweighs everything else. (59:15) Right.

(59:15) And I, that’s an absolutely true statement. (59:20) So do you want to do a hundred thousand? (59:22) What do you think’s like a good number? (59:24) You were at a hundred, then you went to 10,000. (59:27) No, a thousand.

(59:27) I was at 10. (59:28) You went to 10,000. (59:29) I went to a hundred.

(59:30) I’m figuring a nice round number. (59:32) I mean, I don’t think, I think a million would be challenging. (59:34) I agree.

(59:35) I can’t speak for asteroid impacts in a million years. (59:38) Yeah. (59:40) 20,000 maybe? (59:42) Just, cause I’m just thinking asteroid alone.

(59:45) How many, we’re hit how many times by something? (59:50) Yeah. (59:50) Well, if you look at the moon. (59:51) Right.

(59:52) I mean. (59:52) Well, yeah. (59:52) I mean, but that was early development as well.

(59:55) Of course. (59:56) No, of course. (59:56) Yeah.

(59:56) And a lot of, like Jupiter swept out, right? (59:59) A lot of the, the gravitational pull of Jupiter with the asteroid belt helped. (1:00:03) Yeah. (1:00:04) Kind of clear out the inner circle, but every once in a while, some come through, right? (1:00:07) Yeah.

(1:00:08) Halley’s comment, blah, blah, blah. (1:00:09) Yeah. (1:00:09) And there’s a couple that are slated for like early 2030s, I think.

(1:00:13) Oh, I’m excited, dude. (1:00:15) Perfect. (1:00:15) It’s going to be amazing.

(1:00:16) It’s the Y2K of the, of 2030. (1:00:19) It’s the 2K30? (1:00:22) How much fucking panic do we have to put on each other? (1:00:24) It’s so stupid, dude. (1:00:24) It’s so dumb.

(1:00:25) Okay. (1:00:27) All right. (1:00:27) So let’s lock down a number.

(1:00:30) What do you think’s a legit number? (1:00:31) 20, 30? (1:00:33) Thousand? (1:00:34) Obviously not. (1:00:37) I just go back to like, like the Mayans. (1:00:41) They ruled for like 2,500 years and they had no electricity.

(1:00:46) They had no, so they had, they built a civilization. (1:00:51) We don’t know how, but they built a civilization. (1:00:55) Then they were gone and no one knows why.

(1:00:58) So I don’t, but on the other side of the coin, I don’t think it’s fair to. (1:01:05) But they were invaded by conquistadors who gave them illness. (1:01:09) Well.

(1:01:09) And that was also a smart, technologically advanced civilization already. (1:01:13) True. (1:01:13) They just didn’t communicate.

(1:01:14) They had communication, but they weren’t an outward communication. (1:01:16) Yeah, of course. (1:01:17) Yeah.

(1:01:18) They verbal and they had, you know. (1:01:19) Right. (1:01:19) Cave drawings.

(1:01:21) And Spaniards were also. (1:01:23) Yeah. (1:01:23) They had written with a written word.

(1:01:25) Right. (1:01:26) And yeah. (1:01:26) Language.

(1:01:26) Yeah. (1:01:27) So it was really, that was an invasive force. (1:01:29) Not a, not a. (1:01:30) Right.

(1:01:30) And like, it just like Mars to me seems like what the fuck happened there? (1:01:36) It, it feels like there, there was something there and almost the way people describe the (1:01:41) way it looks, it’s almost like this top layer was like ripped off. (1:01:44) Almost like this thing came through and just like a storm or something just really just (1:01:49) took a, I don’t know what it was, but it seemed really weird. (1:01:52) It was the Borg.

(1:01:54) Definitely the Borg. (1:01:55) It’s because resistance is futile. (1:01:56) The Borg bro.

(1:01:58) Hashtag Borg bro. (1:02:00) All right. (1:02:01) So I don’t know, dude.

(1:02:04) Let’s do 20,000. (1:02:06) I think that’s fair. (1:02:08) 26,000.

(1:02:09) Okay. (1:02:10) Let’s do it. (1:02:11) So you.

(1:02:12) The lifetime. (1:02:13) Let’s go through the numbers. (1:02:14) The lifetime in years of a communicative civilization, 26,666.

(1:02:22) Beautiful. (1:02:23) Are we, are we agreed? (1:02:24) Sure. (1:02:26) Fantastic.

(1:02:27) So let’s go through all the equation pieces again. (1:02:28) All the equation pieces. (1:02:30) We actually plugged them into your little handy dandy.

(1:02:31) I plugged them into the handy PBS.org, sir. (1:02:35) And you’re going to share that link with me so I can put it on there. (1:02:37) It would be my honor to do so.

(1:02:40) And my pleasure. (1:02:42) Also Tambien of the Tambourines. (1:02:45) Do you want me to go through the equation? (1:02:46) Yes, please.

(1:02:47) The Drake equation is R, the number of suitable stars that form in our galaxy per year. (1:02:54) We put one times FP, the fraction of these stars that have planets, 0.35 times NE, the (1:03:07) number of earth-like planets, meaning planets that have liquid water within each planetary (1:03:13) system. (1:03:14) We put one times FL, the fraction of earth-like planets where life develops.

(1:03:22) 0.05 times FI, the fraction of life sites where intelligent life develops. (1:03:32) And to them, intelligent life is symbolic communication of some sort. (1:03:36) Yes, sir.

(1:03:36) Yes, sir. (1:03:37) We put 0.05 there as well, times FC, the fraction of intelligent life sites where communication (1:03:44) develops. (1:03:47) 0.5 times L, the lifetime in years of a communicative civilization.

(1:03:54) We put 26,666 years. (1:03:57) I like it. (1:03:58) Because I’m weird and I love Iron Maiden.

(1:04:01) Iron Maiden. (1:04:02) Did they have a 26,666 years? (1:04:05) No, but. (1:04:06) There’s not a 666.

(1:04:07) You should have done 666,666 years. (1:04:10) I’m not changing it. (1:04:11) 0.66. (1:04:12) 0.66. (1:04:12) You should have done 666,666.66 years.

(1:04:16) Yes. (1:04:17) So, the Drake equation is R times FP, times NE, times FL, times FI, times FC, times L, (1:04:26) equals N. (1:04:27) Now, for FL, I have FE, which is where, I don’t know why, I think it’s where earth-like (1:04:34) planets, where life actually occurs. (1:04:35) Yeah, they said fraction of earth-like planets, and this is FL.

(1:04:38) And that’s FL for life. (1:04:39) Life, correct. (1:04:39) Yeah, so just to be clear, there are different schools of thought on the Drake equation.

(1:04:44) I think Drake was bilingual. (1:04:45) Yeah, and he was a phenomenal pop musician. (1:04:47) Right? (1:04:48) No, he’s not at all.

(1:04:49) N is the number of. (1:04:50) He’s got moves. (1:04:51) Shut up.

(1:04:52) The number N, the number. (1:04:55) I’ll bang on a button, bro. (1:04:57) And the number of communicative civilizations within the Milky Way today.

(1:05:01) The Milky Way, with those numbers. (1:05:03) Our galaxy. (1:05:04) Using the numbers.

(1:05:05) Now, these are assumed numbers. (1:05:06) These are numbers that you and I came up with. (1:05:07) We used the one in 20 rule, and basically, and .35 to split the difference on one of (1:05:14) them.

(1:05:14) I know that. (1:05:15) Yes, sir. (1:05:16) That is all correct, sir.

(1:05:17) And drum roll to you. (1:05:20) Your estimated equation yields, your equation yields an estimated communicative civilizations (1:05:27) in the Milky Way, 1.16. (1:05:30) 1.16 per galaxy, in the Milky Way. (1:05:35) In the Milky Way.

(1:05:36) Okay. (1:05:36) Well, that’s us. (1:05:37) We’re that one.

(1:05:39) So, that’s, based upon our numbers, it’s saying that there is no other intelligent (1:05:46) life that communicates that has survived in our galaxy. (1:05:50) Interesting. (1:05:51) Because it could have died out before we would have caught it, as well.

(1:05:54) That’s part of the lifespan. (1:05:55) Yes. (1:05:56) Do me a favor.

(1:05:56) Put 100,000 years in. (1:05:57) I’m curious just what that difference would change. (1:05:59) What that would change it to.

(1:06:00) Would it be four times about? (1:06:02) Would it be four point? (1:06:03) That makes sense. (1:06:03) I would guess, but I’m wondering. (1:06:05) Yeah, I guess it would be, right? (1:06:06) Because it’s four times that one number.

(1:06:07) That’s so stupid that I said that. (1:06:09) I can’t believe I said that. (1:06:11) I’m bang.

(1:06:12) Four dot three seven five. (1:06:15) I’m banging my head against the. (1:06:17) So, if the average lifespan of the civilization is 100,000.

(1:06:23) It’s four. (1:06:23) Four dot three seven five. (1:06:24) So, four in the Milky Way.

(1:06:26) Let’s use 100,000. (1:06:27) That sounds fair. (1:06:29) Okay.

(1:06:29) Because if you’re smart enough to communicate outwardly, you’re probably smart enough to (1:06:32) build a bunker, maybe grow some food indoor. (1:06:35) Electricity, obviously. (1:06:37) To grow with UV lights.

(1:06:40) I mean, I would think you could survive. (1:06:41) I don’t know how well you’d survive, but I think you could survive pretty much most (1:06:45) times. (1:06:45) Matt Damon survived on Mars by planting seeds in his poop, bro.

(1:06:50) In his poop. (1:06:52) If Matt Damon can do it. (1:06:53) Matt Damon.

(1:06:55) That anybody can do it. (1:06:58) Bro. (1:06:58) Bro.

(1:06:59) So, that was Drake. (1:07:00) Was that boring as fuck for you? (1:07:02) No, I liked it. (1:07:03) Or was that semi-educational and hopefully not too boring? (1:07:06) What do you think, Twitter world? (1:07:08) Tell us.

(1:07:09) Rate, review us, subscribe, follow. (1:07:11) Download, stars. (1:07:12) We’re doing really well on downloads, bro.

(1:07:15) Yeah, crushing it, bro. (1:07:15) But no one’s leaving comments. (1:07:16) We need comments, bro.

(1:07:17) Oh, my God. (1:07:18) Bro, his brain is going to leak out of his ears, bro. (1:07:21) 17 days? (1:07:24) Yeah.

(1:07:24) How many alien-like civilizations do we have? (1:07:31) Oh, like chestbursters? (1:07:34) Actually, you know what? (1:07:35) There’s none because he made those. (1:07:37) David made them. (1:07:39) They weren’t natural.

(1:07:40) Oh, yeah. (1:07:40) I totally forgot. (1:07:41) I didn’t even think about that.

(1:07:42) Oh, yeah. (1:07:43) They didn’t even evolve. (1:07:43) That horrible fucking movie.

(1:07:46) Prometheus makes me wanna- (1:07:47) Prometheus was good. (1:07:48) No, Covenant was the one- (1:07:49) Covenant was good. (1:07:50) Prometheus was horrible.

(1:07:51) Prometheus was the first. (1:07:52) Yes. (1:07:52) Covenant was the one where they showed him making them, remember? (1:07:55) Yes, correct.

(1:07:56) So, pump the brakes a little bit on Covenant, sir. (1:07:58) Genetic mutation manipulation. (1:08:01) And upcoming on the next Beer Googles, what are we talking about on the next Beer Googles? (1:08:05) I’ve decided we’re going to do a spoiler.

(1:08:08) Are you teasing, sir? (1:08:09) Yeah, we’re teasing. (1:08:11) We’re going to tickle the balls a little bit. (1:08:13) So, on the next Beer Googles, what’s our plan? (1:08:16) We’re ranking something.

(1:08:17) We are ranking- (1:08:18) We’re not doing listies. (1:08:19) We are ranking all the Star Wars movies from worst to first. (1:08:26) Thank you.

(1:08:26) Yeah. (1:08:27) And that’s 11 of them. (1:08:28) It’s nine in the three trilogies, and then Solo and Rogue One we added in.

(1:08:35) Correct? (1:08:36) Is that the only other- (1:08:37) Yeah. (1:08:38) There’s no other one? (1:08:39) No, there’s no other one. (1:08:41) So- (1:08:41) And I did survey the Honorable Abel, the Star Wars psycho.

(1:08:47) He’s got Star Wars tattoos and shit. (1:08:48) Awesome. (1:08:49) And he has a surprise insert into the list, sir, that you’re going to giggle your ass (1:08:55) off.

(1:08:55) It’s going to be amazing. (1:08:56) Is it Fanboys? (1:08:57) No. (1:08:57) Because it’s my favorite movie of all time.

(1:08:59) No, it’s a Star Wars that he inserted in the list I just cracked up. (1:09:05) So, and that’s on the next Beer Googles, I believe. (1:09:08) Yes, that’s correct.

(1:09:09) As for the Drake Equation, let’s close this motherfucker out. (1:09:12) Okay. (1:09:13) What are your thoughts about all of these different fractions and everything? (1:09:17) Does that make sense? (1:09:18) No.

(1:09:18) Those are the factors that count towards the number of civilizations? (1:09:26) Yeah. (1:09:26) I would agree that it is. (1:09:28) I think the number is very low, I believe, but- (1:09:32) Well, there are billions of galaxies.

(1:09:36) But there are- (1:09:37) So there could be a billion then. (1:09:38) Yes. (1:09:40) Civilizations.

(1:09:41) But the fact that there’s billions of stars in our galaxy alone, and this equation states (1:09:46) there’s only four intelligent civilizations, that’s hard for me to believe. (1:09:54) I thought it would be way more than that. (1:09:56) I totally get what you’re saying.

(1:09:57) But if you’re thinking about it this way though, you’re talking about the rate of a star growing. (1:10:00) I understand. (1:10:01) So how many per year, right? (1:10:02) So there’s only one of those.

(1:10:03) Now, this civilization could exist the same time as this one. (1:10:07) Yeah. (1:10:07) But something could happen here, and it dies.

(1:10:10) Yes. (1:10:10) And then this one makes it longer. (1:10:13) Yeah.

(1:10:13) Right? (1:10:13) And then this, two more spring up, but then two go quicker. (1:10:17) Or there’s ten civilizations that don’t want to communicate outside of their own planet. (1:10:21) Exactly.

(1:10:22) Or they’re still in 1875 with the train and shit. (1:10:25) Right. (1:10:25) And no radio.

(1:10:26) And these are, yeah. (1:10:27) Marty! (1:10:28) You mean Back to the Future 3. (1:10:30) That was good. (1:10:31) Thank you.

(1:10:32) I still do not understand that relationship between that boy and that doctor. (1:10:36) I’m still trying to figure it out. (1:10:37) Don’t.

(1:10:37) Stop. (1:10:38) No. (1:10:39) Marty! (1:10:40) We gotta go back to the future! (1:10:44) To that end, though, these are all just make up numbers that we just plugged some stuff (1:10:49) in.

(1:10:49) It could be higher. (1:10:50) The numbers could be higher. (1:10:51) We’re trying to be conservative for a reason.

(1:10:52) However, we determined that in the Milky Way galaxy, there’s one. (1:10:59) We know that we are the one. (1:11:02) At least.

(1:11:03) Right? (1:11:03) You’re the one, bro. (1:11:04) So it makes total sense that in the billions of galaxies, there’s one per? (1:11:12) Holy fuckballs, is all I gotta say about that. (1:11:14) There’s billions of intelligent life.

(1:11:18) Yeah. (1:11:18) And that’s with very conservative numbers, in my opinion. (1:11:21) Well, yeah.

(1:11:22) Because the original answer was one, right? (1:11:25) Yeah. (1:11:25) So one times a billion is a billion. (1:11:26) I’m really good at math.

(1:11:27) Yay me. (1:11:28) So obviously that is a goddamn lot of alien civilizations. (1:11:33) Yeah.

(1:11:34) And going back to the Greer point about the close encounters thing, right? (1:11:39) If it’s a dimensional thing, they might not be susceptible to the physical damages of (1:11:45) things if you can travel interdimensionally as well in some cases. (1:11:48) That’s a very good point. (1:11:49) Once we get to that certain consciousness.

(1:11:51) Yeah. (1:11:52) So there’s so many things that go into this. (1:11:53) We don’t know what direction Earth and humanity is going to go, but it’s really interesting (1:11:58) to see.

(1:11:59) And I can’t wait, man. (1:12:01) I can’t wait. (1:12:01) Are you excited? (1:12:02) Well, I can’t wait for the first fucking to land and be like, we literally come in peace.

(1:12:09) We’ve got answers for everything. (1:12:11) We love you. (1:12:12) And love is the only way.

(1:12:14) And if you don’t want love, we’ll just take care of you right now. (1:12:16) We can read your heart. (1:12:18) We can tell if you’re a loving person or not.

(1:12:21) And then we’re going to kill everybody who doesn’t love you. (1:12:24) No, I’m just kidding. (1:12:24) What did Dr. Greer say was the language of the universe? (1:12:27) I don’t remember.

(1:12:29) I saw on a YouTube video with a bunch of smart people, math is the original language. (1:12:35) Math is the language of the universe. (1:12:36) Yeah.

(1:12:36) Then Dr. Greer said blank is the language of the universe. (1:12:40) I don’t remember what it was. (1:12:41) Was it love or consciousness? (1:12:42) No.

(1:12:42) It was, yes, consciousness. (1:12:44) Thank you. (1:12:44) And maybe they’re both wrong and love is the language of the universe.

(1:12:49) I mean, look. (1:12:52) Peace and love, bro. (1:12:53) Well, you can’t get to unconditional love if you have conditions surrounding your life.

(1:13:00) That was beautiful, bro. (1:13:02) No, no. (1:13:02) I didn’t mean if you didn’t have conditions in the thing, but I’m saying like if there (1:13:05) weren’t conditions placed on you from other factors, external factors, you can’t have unconditional love.

(1:13:11) In my opinion, I think unconditional love is kind of a fallacy. (1:13:15) I mean, you could say it about your child or your pet or your pet has it for you. (1:13:19) But let’s be honest.

(1:13:20) If I have cats and I croak, they’re eating me if they’re not getting fed for a while. (1:13:26) You’re delicious, dude. (1:13:29) Don’t.

(1:13:30) Mississippi Leo. (1:13:30) Stop it. (1:13:32) Stop it.

(1:13:33) But you know what I’m saying, right? (1:13:34) So I’m wondering if a civilization is out there that’s gotten to that consciousness (1:13:42) of that unconditional portion. (1:13:45) Wouldn’t it seem probable? (1:13:48) Definitely possible. (1:13:50) I can’t rule it out.

(1:13:51) If there’s a billion civilizations, wouldn’t one of them be the antithesis of suck? (1:13:59) And one would be awesome? (1:14:01) Or what do you mean by suck? (1:14:02) Like it would be anti-suck. (1:14:04) It would be like beautiful, pure, like just the most breathtaking, precious thing ever. (1:14:15) Precious.

(1:14:15) Precious. (1:14:17) Excellent point. (1:14:19) We need to know how old these civilizations get because once again, once again, if it, (1:14:26) if there is an event that ends that civilization who knows how, you know, regardless of how (1:14:31) high brow they were or how woke they were, how conscious they were, if they can’t escape (1:14:37) what I agree befalls them, I agree.

(1:14:40) They can’t continue. (1:14:40) However, it would be from what the stuff we’ve seen and heard in the anecdotes about (1:14:46) UFOs and all this other stuff, there could be an interdimensional aspect to that. (1:14:51) And if there is, obviously they have, someone has gotten to that point.

(1:14:55) So I feel like someone’s beyond just this physical dimensional realm. (1:15:01) I would agree. (1:15:02) So maybe they can be unconditional.

(1:15:04) I hope so. (1:15:05) What are your thoughts? (1:15:05) Yeah. (1:15:06) Close it out, man.

(1:15:07) I hope. (1:15:07) Tell us about Drake. (1:15:08) Tell us about your love for all this and what you think.

(1:15:10) I love everybody, bro. (1:15:12) Peace and love. (1:15:13) I think it’s a very, the dude spent a lot of time putting all those fractions together, man.

(1:15:20) It makes sense too though. (1:15:21) Yeah, fuck fractions. (1:15:22) Yes.

(1:15:23) That no one collected that until 1960. (1:15:26) I mean, that’s only 60 years ago. (1:15:28) Well, I mean, people were probably thinking about it, right? (1:15:30) Right.

(1:15:31) But some dude finally put it on paper. (1:15:33) Right. (1:15:34) That’s yeah, I agree.

(1:15:35) And we know it’s not an actual equation. (1:15:37) It’s not like physics. (1:15:39) We know it’s not like Newton’s law.

(1:15:41) Oh, it’s easy. (1:15:41) Cause I can’t do physics for real. (1:15:43) I got like a C minus dude.

(1:15:45) Yeah. (1:15:45) But we know that. (1:15:46) Right.

(1:15:47) But it, it dumbs it down to us for us to digest. (1:15:50) Like how really infinitesimally small we are in this great universe that in which we live. (1:15:57) It’s amazing.

(1:15:58) It’s beautiful out there. (1:15:59) Gorgous. (1:16:00) Gorgous.

(1:16:02) Gorgous. (1:16:02) Gorgous. (1:16:03) Yes.

(1:16:04) Yeah. (1:16:04) So that’s Drake, my friends. (1:16:06) Thanks for Drake.

(1:16:07) Thank you. (1:16:07) Also, thank you for, uh, what’s that called? (1:16:11) Uh, placating my ego, uh, patronizing me on this, on this journey. (1:16:16) In a good way.

(1:16:17) No, no. (1:16:17) I was like, why? (1:16:18) How did I patronize you? (1:16:20) Not Bonnie Raitt. (1:16:20) I can’t make you love me.

(1:16:21) Don’t patronize me. (1:16:22) I didn’t like patronize. (1:16:24) Like patron it.

(1:16:25) Like you’re, you were being a patron. (1:16:26) You were being. (1:16:27) So it was a good thing.

(1:16:29) Not a bad. (1:16:29) Okay. (1:16:29) Patronizing.

(1:16:30) Yeah. (1:16:31) I know. (1:16:32) It sounds like a bad word.

(1:16:33) I wasn’t that much of a dick. (1:16:35) No, you weren’t a dick at all, man. (1:16:36) I’m so confused.

(1:16:37) You were the antithesis of dick. (1:16:38) Anti-dick. (1:16:39) You’re the antithesis of dick.

(1:16:40) Just like the, there’s some civilization out there. (1:16:43) This is the antithesis of suck. (1:16:44) Yeah.

(1:16:45) You were the antithesis of dick. (1:16:46) You’re so sweet. (1:16:47) Thank you so much, sir.

(1:16:47) You’re so sweet. (1:16:48) So let’s close it out. (1:16:49) What do you, what any, do you have any more final comments about Drake? (1:16:52) And then how are we going to, how are we going to end this, my friend? (1:16:56) Uh, no, I have no further comments about Drake.

(1:16:59) Do you have any further comments about Drake? (1:17:01) The equation? (1:17:03) No. (1:17:04) Be excellent to each other. (1:17:05) Party on, dudes.

(1:17:07) Peace. (1:17:07) Peace.